Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 03 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 67391 (+1667) 1159430 (+28644) 160668 (-883) 931371 (+27860)
Italy 28710 (+474) 209328 (+1900) 79914 (+1665) 100704 (-239)
United Kingdom 28131 (+621) 182260 (+4806) 0 (+0) 154129 (+4185)
Spain 25100 (+276) 245567 (+2579) 146233 (+3783) 74234 (-1480)
France 24760 (+166) 168396 (+1050) 50562 (+350) 93074 (+534)
Belgium 7765 (+62) 49517 (+485) 12211 (+319) 29541 (+104)
Germany 6812 (+76) 164967 (+890) 129000 (+2100) 29155 (-1286)
Brazil 6750 (+340) 96559 (+4450) 40937 (+2898) 48872 (+1212)
Iran 6156 (+65) 96448 (+802) 77350 (+1032) 12942 (-295)
Netherlands 4987 (+94) 40236 (+445) 0 (+0) 35249 (+351)
China 4633 (+0) 82875 (+1) 77685 (+43) 557 (-42)
Canada 3566 (+175) 56714 (+1653) 23801 (+1050) 29347 (+428)
Turkey 3336 (+78) 124375 (+1983) 58259 (+4451) 62780 (-2546)
Sweden 2669 (+16) 22082 (+562) 1005 (+0) 18408 (+546)
Mexico 1972 (+113) 20739 (+1515) 12377 (+954) 6390 (+448)
Switzerland 1762 (+8) 29817 (+112) 24200 (+300) 3855 (-196)
Ecuador 1371 (+308) 27464 (+1128) 2132 (+219) 23961 (+601)
India 1323 (+100) 39699 (+2442) 10819 (+812) 27557 (+1530)
Ireland 1286 (+21) 21176 (+343) 13386 (+0) 6504 (+322)
Russia 1222 (+53) 124054 (+9623) 15013 (+1793) 107819 (+7777)
Peru 1200 (+76) 42534 (+2075) 12434 (+1305) 28900 (+694)
Portugal 1023 (+16) 25190 (-161) 1671 (+24) 22496 (-201)
Indonesia 831 (+31) 10843 (+292) 1665 (+74) 8347 (+187)
Romania 771 (+27) 12732 (+165) 4547 (+219) 7414 (-81)
Poland 664 (+13) 13375 (+270) 3762 (+271) 8949 (-14)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 239946 (+5185) 3396567 (+81450) 1029744 (+28408)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 234504 ( +3041) 3277588 ( +38693) 1040631 ( +29285)
Mon 04 May 2020 237275 ( +2772) 3313174 ( +35586) 1068425 ( +27794)
Tue 05 May 2020 239794 ( +2519) 3345835 ( +32661) 1094692 ( +26267)
Wed 06 May 2020 242079 ( +2285) 3375755 ( +29920) 1119417 ( +24724)
Thu 07 May 2020 244147 ( +2068) 3403116 ( +27361) 1142601 ( +23184)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82875 (+1) 77685 (+43)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 3876 ( +1) 81616 ( +0) 76931 ( +2)
Mon 04 May 2020 3876 ( +1) 81616 ( +0) 76932 ( +2)
Tue 05 May 2020 3877 ( +1) 81616 ( +0) 76934 ( +1)
Wed 06 May 2020 3877 ( +0) 81616 ( +0) 76935 ( +1)
Thu 07 May 2020 3878 ( +0) 81616 ( +0) 76936 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 25100 (+276) 245567 (+2579) 146233 (+3783)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 23769 ( +62) 231684 ( +769) 142886 ( +3590)
Mon 04 May 2020 23823 ( +54) 232365 ( +681) 146312 ( +3427)
Tue 05 May 2020 23869 ( +47) 232967 ( +602) 149571 ( +3259)
Wed 06 May 2020 23910 ( +40) 233498 ( +531) 152661 ( +3090)
Thu 07 May 2020 23945 ( +35) 233967 ( +469) 155581 ( +2920)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 28710 (+474) 209328 (+1900) 79914 (+1665)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 27421 ( +101) 200449 ( +599) 80428 ( +1985)
Mon 04 May 2020 27512 ( +90) 200987 ( +538) 82339 ( +1911)
Tue 05 May 2020 27593 ( +81) 201471 ( +484) 84173 ( +1834)
Wed 06 May 2020 27665 ( +72) 201906 ( +435) 85929 ( +1755)
Thu 07 May 2020 27730 ( +65) 202296 ( +390) 87604 ( +1676)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 28131 (+621) 182260 (+4806) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 26826 ( +497) 175645 ( +2146) nan ( +nan)
Mon 04 May 2020 27280 ( +454) 177583 ( +1938) nan ( +nan)
Tue 05 May 2020 27693 ( +413) 179330 ( +1746) nan ( +nan)
Wed 06 May 2020 28068 ( +375) 180899 ( +1570) nan ( +nan)
Thu 07 May 2020 28407 ( +339) 182307 ( +1408) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 67391 (+1667) 1159430 (+28644) 160668 (-883)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 66080 ( +915) 1113934 ( +12786) 173867 ( +6986)
Mon 04 May 2020 66887 ( +807) 1125499 ( +11565) 180516 ( +6649)
Tue 05 May 2020 67596 ( +709) 1135935 ( +10437) 186802 ( +6286)
Wed 06 May 2020 68217 ( +621) 1145334 ( +9399) 192706 ( +5904)
Thu 07 May 2020 68759 ( +542) 1153782 ( +8448) 198218 ( +5512)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 24760 (+166) 168396 (+1050) 50562 (+350)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 24158 ( +94) 165911 ( +199) 63884 ( +3210)
Mon 04 May 2020 24239 ( +80) 166078 ( +167) 67263 ( +3379)
Tue 05 May 2020 24307 ( +69) 166218 ( +140) 70821 ( +3558)
Wed 06 May 2020 24366 ( +59) 166336 ( +118) 74567 ( +3746)
Thu 07 May 2020 24416 ( +50) 166435 ( +99) 78512 ( +3945)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 6812 (+76) 164967 (+890) 129000 (+2100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 6711 ( +65) 158584 ( +247) 124715 ( +1059)
Mon 04 May 2020 6769 ( +57) 158798 ( +214) 125644 ( +929)
Tue 05 May 2020 6819 ( +50) 158983 ( +185) 126457 ( +813)
Wed 06 May 2020 6864 ( +44) 159142 ( +159) 127168 ( +710)
Thu 07 May 2020 6903 ( +39) 159280 ( +138) 127787 ( +620)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 4987 (+94) 40236 (+445) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 4801 ( +32) 39732 ( +236) 164 ( +0)
Mon 04 May 2020 4829 ( +29) 39944 ( +211) 164 ( +0)
Tue 05 May 2020 4854 ( +25) 40133 ( +189) 164 ( +0)
Wed 06 May 2020 4877 ( +22) 40303 ( +169) 164 ( +0)
Thu 07 May 2020 4896 ( +20) 40454 ( +151) 164 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 7765 (+62) 49517 (+485) 12211 (+319)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 7665 ( +49) 48922 ( +322) 11625 ( +87)
Mon 04 May 2020 7707 ( +42) 49209 ( +287) 11701 ( +76)
Tue 05 May 2020 7743 ( +36) 49464 ( +255) 11768 ( +67)
Wed 06 May 2020 7773 ( +30) 49691 ( +227) 11827 ( +59)
Thu 07 May 2020 7799 ( +26) 49893 ( +202) 11879 ( +52)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 2669 (+16) 22082 (+562) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 2685 ( +45) 21866 ( +378) 1100 ( +30)
Mon 04 May 2020 2725 ( +41) 22221 ( +355) 1128 ( +28)
Tue 05 May 2020 2762 ( +36) 22554 ( +333) 1154 ( +26)
Wed 06 May 2020 2794 ( +33) 22865 ( +311) 1179 ( +24)
Thu 07 May 2020 2824 ( +29) 23156 ( +291) 1201 ( +23)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 664 (+13) 13375 (+270) 3762 (+271)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 673 ( +14) 13101 ( +150) 3957 ( +235)
Mon 04 May 2020 686 ( +13) 13236 ( +136) 4185 ( +229)
Tue 05 May 2020 698 ( +12) 13359 ( +123) 4405 ( +220)
Wed 06 May 2020 708 ( +11) 13470 ( +111) 4614 ( +209)
Thu 07 May 2020 718 ( +10) 13570 ( +100) 4811 ( +197)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 1762 (+8) 29817 (+112) 24200 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 1715 ( +8) 28860 ( +21) 23195 ( +111)
Mon 04 May 2020 1722 ( +7) 28878 ( +18) 23290 ( +95)
Tue 05 May 2020 1728 ( +6) 28894 ( +15) 23371 ( +81)
Wed 06 May 2020 1733 ( +5) 28907 ( +13) 23440 ( +69)
Thu 07 May 2020 1737 ( +4) 28918 ( +11) 23499 ( +59)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 02 May 2020 6156 (+65) 96448 (+802) 77350 (+1032)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 5899 ( +23) 94018 ( +373) 77664 ( +795)
Mon 04 May 2020 5920 ( +21) 94356 ( +338) 78385 ( +721)
Tue 05 May 2020 5939 ( +19) 94661 ( +306) 79037 ( +652)
Wed 06 May 2020 5956 ( +17) 94938 ( +276) 79625 ( +588)
Thu 07 May 2020 5972 ( +16) 95187 ( +250) 80155 ( +530)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.